Global markets have been whipsawed this week by a familiar but powerful force: geopolitical rhetoric. Donald Trump’s assertion that the conflict involving Iran could be wrapped up in “two to three weeks” injected a sudden wave of optimism into financial markets, but that optimism has proven fragile, and in the oil market in particular, short-lived.
At first glance, traders appeared eager to believe in a resolution. Brent crude dropped sharply, briefly falling to around $98 per barrel more than a 15% daily decline on the assumption that supply disruptions from the Gulf might ease sooner than feared. Equity markets, especially across Asia, rallied strongly in response. Economies like Japan and South Korea, which are highly exposed to energy imports, saw significant gains as investors priced in the possibility of stabilising oil flows.
However, the narrative quickly became more complicated. While Trump spoke of finishing the conflict swiftly, he also warned of intensified military action in the coming weeks. That contradiction - promise of resolution paired with threat of escalation has kept energy markets on edge.
This morning oil prices rebounded above $100 and have since shown renewed upward pressure, reflecting the reality that the underlying risks to supply have not gone away.
This is a classic example of sentiment temporarily overriding fundamentals. Markets want clarity, and in the absence of it, they tend to latch onto the most reassuring headline available. But in this case, there is still no confirmed diplomatic agreement, no clear de-escalation, and ongoing threats to critical oil infrastructure and shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern, and any disruption there, even for a short period has immediate global consequences.
For fuel prices, the implications are significant. While the brief dip in crude might suggest some short-term relief, the rebound tells the more important story. Volatility remains the defining feature of this market. Wholesale fuel costs are being pulled in both directions—down by hopes of a quick resolution, and up by the very real risk of continued conflict and supply disruption.
In practical terms, that means consumers are unlikely to see any meaningful or sustained drop in prices  just yet. Even if crude softens intermittently, the uncertainty itself keeps a risk premium baked into the market. Retail fuel prices tend to lag and smooth out these swings, meaning short-lived dips rarely translate into immediate savings.
Looking ahead, the key question is not whether the conflict ends in two to three weeks but whether markets are right to believe that it will. Until there is concrete evidence of de-escalation, oil prices are likely to remain reactive, unpredictable, and sensitive to every new headline.
For now, the story of the week is simple: markets may be hoping for a quick end, but oil is still pricing in the risk that it won’t come so easily.
Fuel card prices will increase in the region of a further 3 pence per litre for next week.
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Fuel Market Update 27/03/2026
Oil slips on Iran talks, but prices remain elevated and highly volatile.
Oil prices have taken a slight breather this week, but it would be a mistake to read too much into the dip. Beneath the surface, the market remains extremely tight, highly reactive, and deeply uncertain about what comes next.
After weeks of sharp gains driven by the escalating conflict involving Iran, crude benchmarks edged lower, with Brent hovering just under $108 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $94.
The immediate trigger for the pullback was President Trump’s decision to extend a pause on attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. On paper, that signals a window for de-escalation. In reality, it has done little to calm nerves.
What we are seeing now is a shift in how oil markets are reacting. Prices are no longer just moving on headlines; they are being driven by expectations around how long this conflict could last and how severe it might become. Even with talk of negotiations, traders are clearly not convinced a resolution is close. That lingering doubt is keeping prices elevated.
The scale of the disruption is also hard to ignore. An estimated 11 million barrels per day has been taken out of global supply, a figure that puts this crisis in the same conversation, or even beyond historic shocks like the 1970s oil crises. When supply losses reach that level, the market doesn’t just react it reprices risk entirely.
There are also critical pressure points still in play. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern, as does Iran’s Kharg Island, a major oil export hub. Any direct escalation involving either would likely trigger another sharp move upwards. That’s why even small developments such as troop movements, diplomatic proposals and deadlines are being watched so closely.
Looking ahead, the range of possible outcomes is unusually wide. If tensions ease in the coming weeks, prices could fall back relatively quickly, though likely not to pre-conflict levels. But if the situation drags on into the summer, some forecasts suggest oil could climb dramatically higher, even approaching $200 per barrel in a worst-case scenario.
For fuel prices here in the UK, the takeaway is clear. Despite this week’s dip, we are not yet in a downtrend. Wholesale costs remain high, and volatility makes it difficult for retailers to adjust prices with confidence. As a result, motorists are unlikely to see meaningful relief at the pumps in the short term.
In fact, if anything, the current situation reinforces just how exposed fuel prices are to geopolitical risk. Until there is a clear and sustained de-escalation, the market will continue to price in uncertainty and that means continued pressure on both petrol and diesel prices.
Fuel card prices will see their lowest rise this month of 4 pence per litre for next week.
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Fuel Market Update 20/03/2026
Oil Prices Slip Slightly - But the Pressure Isn't Going Away
Oil markets ended the week on a softer note, but don’t let that fool you. Beneath the surface, the fundamentals still point to a market under strain and for consumers, especially across the UK, the impact is only just beginning to bite.
At the time of writing, Brent Crude is trading at around $106.71 per barrel, up from roughly $103 at the start of the week. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate has slipped back to $93.58 after starting the week above $99. A late dip, yes - but overall, oil is still firmly on track for weekly gains.
The key driver behind this week’s price movement remains ongoing disruption in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical arteries for global oil supply.
For a third consecutive week, tanker flows and export logistics have been under pressure. Even the suggestion of instability in this region is enough to move markets. The reality, however, is more serious: when supply chains are disrupted at this scale, recovery is rarely quick or straightforward.
Even if safe passage were restored tomorrow, the backlog of delayed shipments, rerouted vessels, and interrupted production would take time - potentially weeks to normalise.
The slight pullback in prices came after a series of statements from global leaders. These included discussions around restoring tanker flows, the possibility of easing sanctions on Iranian oil, and even releasing additional barrels from strategic reserves. All of this helped calm markets - temporarily.
But there’s a clear gap between talk and execution. None of these measures can deliver immediate supply, and traders are well aware of that. For now, the market is reacting to headlines, not barrels.
Complicating matters further is the continued tension in the region. Reports of ongoing Israeli strikes on Iran highlight just how fragile the situation remains. Diplomatic solutions are being discussed, but tangible progress appears limited.
That uncertainty is what keeps the so-called “war premium” baked into oil prices and it’s unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
For UK drivers, the effects are already visible.
And importantly, these increases don’t yet reflect the full extent of wholesale price rises. There is typically a lag before higher oil prices fully feed through to forecourts. That means more pain is on the way.
There is a very real possibility that diesel prices could approach ÂŁ2.00 per litre in the coming weeks if current conditions persist.
In the short term, volatility is almost guaranteed. Prices will likely continue to react sharply to geopolitical headlines - rising on signs of escalation and easing slightly on diplomatic developments.
However, the broader picture suggests:
Even in a best-case scenario, where tensions ease quickly, the recovery in supply chains won’t be immediate.
For businesses, fleet operators, and everyday drivers alike, the message is clear: fuel costs are rising, and the pressure isn’t over yet.
Fuel card prices will rise by a further 10 pence per litre for next week, another unwanted week of double digit rises.
